MBA: September new-home mortgage applications fall 8.3% from a year earlier
MBA’s Oct. 15 release reports unadjusted September application declines. Its separate 584,000 annualized sales estimate is a model, not a Census count.
By Brandon Salem · 3 min read
Mortgage applications for newly built home purchases fell 8.3% from a year earlier in September, the Mortgage Bankers Association reported Oct. 15. Applications were also down 8% from August. MBA says these application comparisons do not adjust for typical seasonal patterns. Source.
Applications and estimated sales are different measures
The release comes from MBA’s Builder Application Survey, which follows applications at mortgage subsidiaries of homebuilders. It is a focused view of new-home purchase financing, rather than the association’s weekly survey of applications across the broader mortgage market.
MBA also estimated that new single-family home sales ran at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 584,000 in September, compared with 664,000 in August. The association reported that as a 12% decline. The annualized number describes a modeled pace, not 584,000 homes sold during September.
On an unadjusted basis, MBA estimated 47,000 new-home sales during the month, down from 52,000 in August. That is a different presentation from the seasonally adjusted annual rate. Neither estimate should be labeled a newly released Census Bureau sales count.
MBA derives its sales estimate from application information, assumptions about market coverage and other inputs. Census publishes its own monthly New Residential Sales estimates. A mortgage application, a signed purchase contract and a completed closing are also different stages of a transaction.
Loan mix and loan size
Conventional loans accounted for 50.2% of the September applications in the survey. FHA represented 34.7%, VA 14.1%, and RHS/USDA 1.0%. Those shares describe the survey’s application mix, not each program’s share of all homes sold nationwide.
The average requested loan size increased to $374,724 from $373,194 in August. That figure is a mortgage amount, not a home price. A change in average loan size can reflect the mix of applications as well as the financing amount sought, so it does not independently establish a national new-home price change.
What MBA’s interpretation can and cannot establish
MBA economist Joel Kan attributed the weaker activity to September’s higher mortgage rates and described the modeled sales pace as the weakest since April 2020. That explanation and comparison are MBA’s interpretation of its data. The survey does not isolate every cause of the monthly application decline.
The unadjusted monthly application movement should also be read with its seasonal limitation intact. Removing that qualification would make the comparison appear more standardized than MBA reports it. The modeled sales series has a different adjustment treatment, so the two percentage changes cannot be interchanged.
Takeaway for buyers, builders and loan officers
The dated release points to fewer new-home purchase applications in September and a slower MBA-estimated sales pace. For project or local-market decisions, separate this financing signal from contracts, cancellations and completed sales in the relevant community. The report does not promise builder incentives or a particular borrower rate.
MBA September application and sales measures
| Measure | September 2026 | Comparison |
|---|---|---|
| New-home purchase applications | Down 8.3% year over year | Down 8% from August; not seasonally adjusted |
| MBA modeled sales pace | 584,000 SAAR | August: 664,000 SAAR |
| MBA unadjusted estimated sales | 47,000 | August: 52,000 |
Sources
MBA Builder Application Survey release, Oct. 15, 2026.
Cover: AI-generated editorial illustration by mortgage.news, showing application paperwork and an architectural drawing. Not a photograph, genuine application or MBA logo.
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Transcript (on-screen text; original instrumental music, no narration): mortgage.news; SEPTEMBER 2026; New home purchase mortgage applications; Purchase applications; −8.3%; from a year earlier; Not seasonally adjusted; −8%; from August; MBA modeled estimate; 584,000; new home sales, SAAR; August: 664,000; Not a Census count; Applications: −8.3% year, −8% month; Source: MBA Builder Application Survey, Oct. 15, 2026