Sellers Outnumber Buyers by 51% as Housing Market Shifts Further in Buyers’ Favor

Sellers Outnumber Buyers by 51% as Housing Market Shifts Further in Buyers’ Favor

The U.S. housing market is tilting further toward buyers as would-be purchasers retreat to the sidelines, leaving sellers with less negotiating leverage across most major markets.

Redfin estimated that sellers outnumbered buyers by 51.3% in July, nearly matching the record 51.8% seller surplus recorded in December. The imbalance is not being driven primarily by a flood of new listings. Instead, the number of active homebuyers has fallen to a record low as mortgage rates and home prices continue to constrain affordability.

For mortgage lenders and originators, the shift matters because a market with more negotiating room for buyers can affect purchase activity, seller concessions, pricing and the pace at which borrowers move from application to closing.

Executive Summary

• Sellers outnumbered buyers by 51.3% nationally in July, according to Redfin.

• The number of estimated buyers fell 2.5% from June to 966,752, the lowest level in Redfin's records.

• There were approximately 1.46 million sellers, down 0.3% from June.

• 39 of 49 major metros analyzed by Redfin were buyer's markets.

• Miami had 154% more sellers than buyers, followed by Nashville at 151%, Houston at 130%, San Antonio at 116% and Austin at 112%.

• Only six major metros were seller's markets.

• The national 30-year fixed mortgage rate averaged 6.65% on Aug. 20, according to Freddie Mac, still well above the rates many homeowners locked in during the pandemic-era refinancing wave.

The result is a market where buyers who can afford today's financing costs increasingly have something that has been scarce for years: time and negotiating power.

Buyers are disappearing faster than sellers

The July data point to a demand problem more than a supply surge.

Redfin estimated that 966,752 buyers were actively in the market during July, down 2.5% from June. At the same time, the estimated number of sellers declined only 0.3% to 1.46 million.

That left nearly half a million more sellers than buyers.

The distinction is important.

A conventional housing-market slowdown can occur because sellers flood the market with inventory. In the current environment, buyers are pulling back even as sellers also become more cautious.

Redfin said the July seller surplus increased because buyer participation fell much more sharply than seller participation. High housing costs and economic uncertainty have kept would-be purchasers on the sidelines.

That creates a different kind of buyer's market: there may be more negotiating leverage, but fewer households are financially positioned to use it.

Mortgage rates remain a major obstacle

Mortgage financing remains one of the biggest constraints on demand.

Freddie Mac reported that the average 30-year fixed mortgage rate was 6.65% as of Aug. 20, down slightly from 6.67% a week earlier but above the 6.58% average recorded one year earlier. The 15-year fixed rate averaged 5.95%.

For prospective buyers, even modest changes in mortgage rates can materially affect monthly payments because home prices remain elevated.

The result is a disconnect between market leverage and affordability.

A buyer may have the ability to negotiate a lower price or request concessions, but that does not necessarily make the property affordable at today's mortgage rates.

Redfin's July data showed the median U.S. sale price at $407,752 during the four weeks ending July 26, up 2.8% year over year. The median monthly mortgage payment was $2,575 based on a 6.58% mortgage rate. Pending sales were down 1.7% week over week.

Miami, Nashville and Texas lead the buyer's market

The national numbers conceal significant differences among local markets.

Of the 49 largest metros Redfin analyzed, 39 were classified as buyer's markets in July. Redfin defines a buyer's market as one with more than 10% more sellers than buyers.

The five markets with the largest seller surpluses were:

Miami's seller surplus increased substantially from June, when sellers outnumbered buyers by 134%. Seattle also experienced a sharp deterioration in buyer leverage, with its seller surplus rising from 46% to 65%. Fort Worth climbed from 67% to 86%.

Local supply dynamics are helping amplify the national affordability problem.

Redfin said Miami and Nashville have absorbed substantial new construction and investor activity following the pandemic-era housing boom. In Miami, higher insurance costs, HOA fees and climate-related risks are adding to the cost of ownership.

Houston, San Antonio and Austin have also maintained substantial homebuilding pipelines, putting additional inventory into markets where buyer demand has weakened.

Not every market favors buyers

The national shift should not be mistaken for a uniform housing correction.

Only six of the 49 major metros analyzed by Redfin remained seller's markets in July:

• Nassau County, New York

• Newark, New Jersey

• Providence, Rhode Island

• Milwaukee

• New Brunswick, New Jersey

• Montgomery County, Pennsylvania

Nassau County was the strongest seller's market, with 36% fewer sellers than buyers.

The supply constraints in those markets are helping preserve seller leverage.

Prices also reflect the difference. Home-sale prices rose an average of 4.2% year over year across the six seller's markets in July, compared with 2.3% across the 39 buyer's markets, according to Redfin.

That divergence underscores why national housing statistics can be misleading for individual buyers, sellers and mortgage professionals.

Buyers have more leverage — if they can qualify

A buyer's market does not automatically mean a housing-market rebound.

Redfin's data show that the number of buyers has fallen to its lowest level on record. The buyers who remain may have more choices and greater ability to negotiate, but the overall pool of qualified purchasers is smaller.

This distinction is particularly important for mortgage lenders.

A household that can qualify for a mortgage at today's rates may find itself in a stronger negotiating position than a buyer several years ago. But millions of prospective purchasers remain outside the market because the monthly payment is too high.

That creates a market in which affordability, rather than inventory alone, is increasingly determining transaction volume.

Sellers are adjusting, too

The buyer advantage is also appearing in asking prices.

Realtor.com reported that the national median list price fell to $428,950 in July, down 2.4% from a year earlier and marking the ninth consecutive month of annual declines.

The share of listings with a price reduction reached 20% in July, while pending sales still increased 1.3% year over year for an eighth consecutive month.

That combination suggests sellers are becoming more willing to adjust expectations even though transactions have not collapsed.

Realtor.com's July housing report characterized the market as settling into a summer slowdown, with asking prices declining while homes continued to sell somewhat faster than a year earlier.

For mortgage originators, that can translate into a different conversation with purchase borrowers: the opportunity may be less about winning a bidding war and more about negotiating the complete economics of the transaction.

What it means for mortgage lenders

A market with more sellers than buyers can create opportunities and challenges for lenders.

More negotiating power may encourage buyers to request seller-paid closing costs, temporary or permanent rate buydowns, repairs or other concessions. Those structures can affect loan amounts, underwriting and cash-to-close calculations.

At the same time, weaker demand can reduce purchase-loan volume if affordability prevents prospective buyers from entering the market at all.

The key variable is therefore not simply inventory. It is the number of households that can convert interest in buying into a qualified mortgage application.

Today's market is also unusual because many existing homeowners remain reluctant to sell. Millions of borrowers hold mortgages originated at substantially lower rates than today's prevailing levels, creating a disincentive to move and take on a new mortgage.

That can limit the amount of existing-home inventory available even as buyer demand weakens.

The housing market is splitting into local stories

The July data reinforce a broader theme in the 2026 housing market: there is no single national buyer's market.

Miami and parts of Texas are experiencing large seller surpluses, while supply-constrained markets in the Northeast and Midwest continue to give sellers more leverage.

Even within buyer-friendly markets, the experience can differ dramatically by price range, neighborhood and property type.

For mortgage professionals, that makes local market knowledge increasingly important. A national statistic showing that sellers outnumber buyers by 51.3% cannot by itself tell a borrower whether a particular home is overpriced, whether a seller is likely to negotiate or how much competition exists for a specific property.

What happens next

The immediate question is whether buyer demand can recover if mortgage rates ease.

Freddie Mac's Aug. 20 reading of 6.65% represents a modest weekly improvement, but rates remain high enough to constrain affordability.

If rates decline meaningfully, some sidelined buyers could return quickly, narrowing the seller surplus. If rates remain elevated, the current imbalance could persist, particularly in markets where new construction and resale inventory continue to outpace effective demand.

For now, the most important signal is not that Americans suddenly have an abundance of homes to choose from. It is that buyers are retreating faster than sellers.

That shift is giving qualified buyers more leverage in much of the country while forcing sellers to compete harder for a smaller pool of financially capable purchasers. For the mortgage industry, the next phase of the housing cycle will depend heavily on whether lower borrowing costs can bring those sidelined buyers back into the market.