UWM’s Smith Says Lower Rates Could Bring a Refinance Wave — and Brokers Need to Be Ready

Mortgage brokers hoping for relief from 2026’s rate volatility may not have to wait forever. But according to UWM executive Desmond P. Smith, the bigger question is not simply when rates fall. It is whether brokers will be ready when they do.

In a March 31, 2026 interview published by Mortgage Professional America, Smith, UWM’s EVP and chief growth officer, said he expects rates to move lower at some point and believes that could create a major refinance and recapture opportunity for brokers in the second half of the year. His warning was equally clear: former clients need to already be thinking about their broker before that window opens.

Why This Matters Now

Mortgage rates in 2026 have already swung sharply. The article notes that rates briefly fell into the high-5% range earlier in the year before moving back into the mid-6% range. That kind of movement has created uncertainty around both the spring purchase market and the near-term refinance outlook.

Still, Smith’s comments reflect a view shared by many in the industry: if rates resume a downward path later in the year, a meaningful refinance opportunity could reappear. That matters because millions of existing homeowners remain locked into loans that might become refinance candidates if market conditions improve enough to justify the move.

For brokers, that means preparation cannot begin after rates fall. It has to happen now.

Smith’s Main Message: Stay Front of Mind

Smith told Mortgage Professional America that one of his top priorities is helping brokers remain top of mind with past clients so they are in position to win recapture business when refinance demand returns.

That is the core competitive issue here. When rates drop, borrowers are not going to calmly survey the market over several weeks. Many will respond to the first trusted outreach, the first digital offer, or the first lender that reminds them savings may be available.

Smith’s advice suggests that the refinance battle of 2026 could be won less by rate prediction and more by relationship management.

The Recapture Opportunity Could Be Massive

One of the most striking points in the article is Smith’s statement that there are trillions of dollars of mortgages with rates north of 6.5%. If market rates decline materially, that pool could become fertile ground for refinance activity.

That does not mean every borrower will refinance. Some will not qualify. Some will not benefit enough after fees. Others may prefer to keep their current loan structure. But as a strategic market signal, the point is important: the addressable audience could be enormous.

For brokers, the implication is that client databases, CRM discipline, post-close communication, and borrower education may become just as important as lead generation.

What Brokers Should Be Doing Right Now

Smith highlighted that some brokers already do an excellent job staying connected to former customers through quarterly check-ins, birthday messages, anniversaries, and other regular contact. That kind of follow-up, he suggested, gives brokers a real edge when borrowers are ready to buy again or refinance.

In practical terms, that means brokers should be focused on:

• Regular outreach to past clients

• CRM cleanup and segmentation

• Mortgage checkup campaigns

• Refinance education for borrowers with higher-rate loans

• Equity and cash-out conversations where appropriate

• Consistent branding and local visibility

The key idea is not aggressive selling. It is staying relevant and trusted enough that the borrower thinks of the broker first.

Competition Will Be Fierce

Smith also made clear that brokers will not have the field to themselves.

According to the article, servicers are better prepared for refinance opportunities than they were during the 2020 and 2021 boom. Retail banks may also become more aggressive in mortgage lending, particularly if proposed policy changes make that business more attractive for them.

That raises the stakes for independent brokers. If they are passive, they risk losing former clients to institutions that already control the monthly mortgage statement, customer portal, or deposit relationship.

The refinance cycle, if it comes, may be less about who can find borrowers and more about who can defend existing relationships.

Control What You Can Control

One of the strongest business lessons in Smith’s comments is his emphasis on focusing on controllable factors.

He told the publication that brokers should not get overly consumed by variables they cannot control, such as interest rates or housing inventory. Instead, the focus should remain on the daily realities of the market: people are still buying homes, refinancing for cash-out purposes, and making financial decisions right now.

That is a valuable framework in a market like 2026, where uncertainty can easily lead to hesitation.

Brokers who keep marketing, nurturing client relationships, and serving active borrowers today may be better positioned than those who spend too much time waiting for a cleaner rate environment.

This Is Not Just About Rate-and-Term Refinances

Although most discussion around falling rates centers on rate-and-term refinance volume, Smith also pointed out that refinances are already happening for other reasons, including cash-out transactions.

That matters because it broadens the opportunity set. Even before a major rate rally, brokers may still find business among homeowners looking to:

• Consolidate higher-cost debt

• Fund renovations

• Cover education expenses

• Access emergency liquidity

• Restructure finances amid changing household needs

In other words, waiting for the perfect refinance market can be a mistake. There may already be borrowers who need solutions.

UWM’s Bigger Broker Thesis

Smith’s comments were not just about rates. They were also part of UWM’s broader long-term message about the rising role of independent mortgage brokers.

The article says brokers are now nearing 30% market share, a significant increase from the single-digit share they once held. Smith said that is progress, but also made clear that UWM’s ambition is much higher, with a goal of pushing brokers above the 50% mark.

That ambition is central to the story. The expected recapture fight is not just a tactical refinance play. It is also part of a longer campaign to grow broker influence in the broader mortgage market.

UWM Live and Broker Momentum

Smith’s comments came ahead of UWM Live, scheduled for May 13-14 on the company’s campus in Pontiac, Michigan, according to the article. He said the event would feature successful loan officers and brokers sharing how they built their businesses.

That context reinforces the article’s tone: despite market volatility, UWM is leaning into a message of optimism, broker growth, and competitive readiness.

For the broker channel, that kind of messaging matters. A difficult market can weaken confidence, but it can also sharpen operational discipline and create openings for firms willing to stay visible.

What This Means for the Industry

Smith’s remarks offer a useful snapshot of where the broker channel sees opportunity in 2026.

For brokers

The message is to build systems now, not later. The next refinance wave, if it arrives, may reward firms with the best retention strategy rather than the biggest advertising budget.

For servicers and retail lenders

The article is a reminder that the recapture battle is already on the industry’s radar. Institutions with direct borrower relationships will likely move aggressively when rate conditions improve.

For borrowers

Consumers may soon see more outreach from lenders and brokers encouraging mortgage reviews, refinance checkups, and equity conversations. That could create more options, but also more noise.

Strategy Table: What Smith’s Comments Signal

Bottom Line

Desmond P. Smith’s message to brokers is not complicated, but it is timely: do not wait for lower rates to start acting like a lender preparing for a refinance boom. Build the relationship now, maintain the connection now, and organize for recapture now.

If rates move down in the second half of 2026, the brokers who win may be the ones whose former clients never forgot them in the first place.

FAQ

What did UWM’s Desmond P. Smith say about mortgage rates?

Smith said he believes rates will come down at some point and that brokers should be prepared for the opportunity that could create, especially with refinances and client recapture.

Why is recapturing former customers so important?

Because when rates fall, brokers will compete with servicers, retail banks, and other lenders for refinance business. Staying top of mind gives brokers a better chance of winning back past clients.

Are refinances already happening in 2026?

Yes. The article notes that refinances are still taking place, including cash-out refinances, even before any major drop in rates.

What mortgage rate levels did the article mention?

The piece said rates dipped into the high-5% range earlier in 2026 before moving back into the mid-6% range.

How big is the potential refinance opportunity?

Smith said there are trillions of dollars of mortgages with interest rates above 6.5%, suggesting a large potential borrower pool if rates ease enough to make refinancing attractive.

How large is broker market share now?

According to the article, brokers are nearing 30% market share, up from the single-digit levels they once held.

Sources

• Mortgage Professional America, “UWM’s Smith: Lower rates coming, and brokers must be ready to recapture customers,” published March 31, 2026.

Final Word

This story captures a familiar truth in mortgage: markets reward the professionals who prepare before the opportunity becomes obvious. If Smith’s rate outlook proves right, the refinance race in late 2026 could be as much about relationship equity as rate sheets. Brokers who have invested in trust, consistency, and smart follow-up may be the ones best positioned to convert a shifting market into real volume.

Follow Mortgage.News for daily mortgage industry coverage, and talk to a trusted lender if you want to understand how changing rates could affect your refinance or homebuying strategy.

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