Zillow: Newly Pending Home Sales Fell 8.5% in September as Payments Rose 6.7%

Why this matters: Newly pending sales are contracts signed in September, so they point to closings over the coming weeks. A drop that steep signals a weaker fall market even though prices are barely moving.

Cover: a declining line over a calendar as autumn turns to winter. Illustration created for mortgage.news; it does not depict a real person, property or document.

Release date versus measurement period

Zillow published its September 2026 Market Report on October 6. The figures describe September. Closed existing-home sales come from Zillow's preliminary nowcast, an estimate that can be revised when final records arrive.

The key numbers

• Newly pending sales fell 8.5% from September 2025.
• Existing-home sales fell 2.5% from a year earlier, according to the nowcast.
• The typical monthly mortgage payment was 6.7% higher than a year ago, assuming 20% down and excluding taxes and insurance.
• The Zillow Home Value Index rose just 1% over the year.
• Typical rent rose 2.7% to $1,932, the biggest annual gain since April 2025.

Why payments rose faster than prices

With home values up only 1%, most of the payment increase comes from higher borrowing costs. Zillow noted that mortgage rates ended September at 7.28%, the highest reading since November 2023, using Freddie Mac's weekly survey. Zillow said rates and the usual fall slowdown "teamed up to chill housing activity in September," according to the report.

Why prices are not falling much

Zillow said many sellers are also buyers, so the same costs that keep buyers out also keep owners from listing. New listings were 0.4% above last September but 11.9% below the pre-pandemic baseline. Total inventory was 2.5% higher than a year earlier, the 34th straight annual gain, yet still 16.1% below pre-pandemic norms.

That mix points to flat values rather than outright declines, in Zillow's view. Its latest forecast calls for continued declines in home sales through the rest of the year. A forecast is not a certainty.

The rental countertrend

Rents rose for both apartments and single-family homes, and annual rent growth has accelerated every month since April, Zillow said. For renters weighing a purchase, rising rent narrows but does not close the gap with a higher mortgage payment.

What buyers and sellers can do

• Buyers: price your payment at today's quoted rate, including taxes and insurance, not the list price alone.
• Buyers: ask how long comparable homes have been listed. Slower contract activity can create room to negotiate.
• Sellers: base pricing on recent pending and closed sales nearby, not last spring's results.
• Everyone: national figures can differ sharply from your local market.

The takeaway

September's contract signings fell much faster than prices. Zillow's next report is expected November 5, which will show whether October followed the same pattern.