Mortgage Applications Fall 2.7% as MBA's 30-Year Rate Hits 7.5%, Highest Since November 2023

Mortgage applications fell 2.7% in the week ending Friday, Oct. 9, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association weekly survey released Wednesday, Oct. 14.

Why this matters: MBA's average 30-year conforming contract rate reached 7.5%, which the group said is the highest since November 2023. Purchase demand weakened again, and more borrowers turned to adjustable-rate loans to lower their starting payment.

Chart: MBA weekly changes for the week ending Oct. 9, 2026, seasonally adjusted. Chart by mortgage.news using only the figures cited in this article.

What the survey showed

• Market Composite Index: down 2.7% from the prior week, seasonally adjusted, and down 2% unadjusted.
• Purchase Index: down 4% seasonally adjusted and 16% lower than the same week a year ago, unadjusted.
• Refinance Index: down 0.4% for the week and 56% lower than a year ago.
• Refinance share: up to 37.7% of applications from 37%.
• Adjustable-rate share: up to 10.5% of applications.

Joel Kan, MBA's vice president and deputy chief economist, said applications decreased as rates moved higher and that the 30-year fixed rate was more than a percentage point above a year ago. He said the ARM share was at its highest level since October 2025 and that the small refinance decline was mainly driven by a 5% drop in FHA refinance applications.

Rates across loan types

MBA's averages are contract rates for 80% loan-to-value loans and include points. They are weekly survey averages, not live quotes.

• 30-year conforming: 7.50%, up from 7.49%, with points falling to 0.83 from 0.84.
• 30-year jumbo: 7.49%, up from 7.39%, with points rising to 0.70 from 0.52.
• 30-year FHA: 7.19%, up from 7.14%, with points falling to 1.21 from 1.36.
• 15-year fixed: 6.87%, up from 6.71%.
• 5/1 ARM: 6.54%, up from 6.43%, with points falling to 1.13 from 1.69.

The jumbo average was a hair below the conforming rate, and points moved in different directions by product. That is why a single headline rate rarely tells a borrower what their own quote will look like.

Fannie Mae's data shows a similar purchase drop

Fannie Mae's weekly application indexes, which draw on its Desktop Underwriter system rather than MBA's lender survey, showed its purchase index down 3.9% for the same week. Its refinance index rose 3.3%, so the two sources disagree on refinance direction for the week. They measure different things, and one week of either series can be noisy.

What it means for borrowers

Buyers shopping now face higher monthly payments than a year ago, and the rise in ARM applications shows some are trading long-term certainty for a lower starting rate. An ARM's payment can rise after its fixed period ends, so anyone considering one should ask how high the rate can adjust and when.

Refinance demand remains thin, with the refinance index 56% below a year ago. FHA borrowers were the biggest source of last week's refinance pullback, according to MBA.

The takeaway: Compare full loan estimates that list both rate and points, ask lenders to quote the same lock period, and treat weekly averages as a snapshot of the market rather than a forecast.