New Home Sales Hold Near 676,000 Pace in September, Within the Margin of Error
Census and HUD estimate September new home sales at a 676,000 annual rate, down 0.6% from August. Wide confidence intervals mean neither the monthly nor annual change is statistically significant.
By Brandon Salem · 4 min read
Sales of new single-family homes ran at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 676,000 in September 2026, the Census Bureau and the Department of Housing and Urban Development reported Tuesday, Oct. 27. That is 0.6% below August's 680,000 pace and 5.3% below September 2025's 714,000.
Neither change clears the bar for statistical significance. Census puts a 90% confidence interval of plus or minus 13.8% around the monthly change and plus or minus 12.5% around the annual change. Both intervals include zero, so the agency cannot say whether sales actually rose or fell.
The September numbers
| Measure | Sept. 2026 | vs. Aug. | vs. Sept. 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sales (annual rate) | 676,000 | -0.6% (±13.8%)* | -5.3% (±12.5%)* |
| Homes for sale, end of month | 476,000 | -1.0% (±0.9%) | -2.3% (±4.0%)* |
| Months' supply | 8.4 | -1.2% (±14.7%)* | +2.4% (±14.1%)* |
| Median sales price | $400,400 | +3.9% (±6.2%)* | -3.9% (±8.9%)* |
| Average sales price | $472,800 | +0.4% (±6.1%)* | Not shown |
* Census marks these changes as not statistically different from zero at the 90% confidence level. Prior-period values: August sales 680,000, inventory 481,000, supply 8.5 months, median price $385,400.
The one change Census treats as significant is the monthly dip in inventory, to 476,000 homes for sale from 481,000. At September's sales pace that is 8.4 months of supply.
What a "sale" means in this report
Census counts a new home as sold when a sales contract is signed or a deposit is accepted. The home does not have to be finished, and the buyer does not have to have closed. Some sales are recorded before construction begins. That makes this report closer to a contract measure than a closings measure, and it is a different concept from the National Association of Realtors' existing-home sales, which count completed resales.
The figures are also first estimates from a survey, and Census routinely revises prior months. A single month of new home sales is one of the noisier housing indicators, which is why the confidence intervals are so wide.
Prices: median versus average
The median price rose to $400,400 from $385,400 in August, but the change is within the margin of error. The median reflects the mix of homes that sold in a given month, so a shift toward smaller or larger homes, or toward different regions, can move it without any builder changing a price.
What buyers can take from it
National supply of about eight months does not tell a buyer what is available in a specific subdivision. Buyers shopping new construction can ask builders whether a home is completed, under construction or not yet started, how long a rate lock offered through an affiliated lender lasts, and what the incentive costs if a lock expires before closing. Comparing a builder's financing offer with outside Loan Estimates for the same home shows the full cost.
Sources: U.S. Census Bureau and HUD, Monthly New Residential Sales, September 2026 (CB26-174), Oct. 27, 2026; Census survey definitions. Cover photo: U.S. Census Bureau headquarters, Suitland, Maryland, March 2007, by the U.S. Census Bureau, public domain, via Wikimedia Commons.